Predictor | I. Pooled | II. France | III. Spain | IV. Italy | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AME | se | AME | se | AME | se | AME | se | |
Short return (ref.: none) | 0.060*** | 0.011 | 0.055** | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.016 | 0.10*** | 0.026 |
Legal status (ref: fully regular: RP_WP) | ||||||||
Fully irregular (NRP_NWP) | −0.11*** | 0.021 | 0.017 | 0.030 | −0.11** | 0.035 | −0.045 | 0.027 |
Mixed (NRP_WP) | 0.056* | 0.026 | 0.13*** | 0.038 | −0.026 | 0.073 | 0.039 | 0.030 |
Mixed (RP_NWP) | −0.03 | 0.02 | −0.047 | 0.034 | −0.033 | 0.031 | 0.013 | 0.033 |
Destination (ref: France) | ||||||||
Spain | 0.012 | 0.042 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Italy | −0.036 | 0.048 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Entry status: no visa (ref: visa) | −0.034+ | 0.02 | −0.000041 | 0.027 | −0.18** | 0.063 | 0.010 | 0.045 |
Years in destination | 0.022*** | 0.002 | 0.018*** | 0.0027 | 0.028*** | 0.0055 | 0.026*** | 0.0043 |
Period of arrival: post-1990 (ref: pre-1990) | −0.015 | 0.038 | 0.052 | 0.054 | −0.10+ | 0.061 | −0.045 | 0.086 |
Age at start of current migration spell | 0.0026 | 0.0025 | −0.00035 | 0.0038 | 0.0025 | 0.0040 | 0.0045 | 0.0053 |
Sex: Male (ref: female) | −0.029 | 0.04 | −0.060 | 0.062 | 0.11 | 0.080 | 0.0083 | 0.071 |
Years of education | −0.0066+ | 0.0035 | −0.013* | 0.0056 | −0.0066 | 0.0058 | 0.0040 | 0.0067 |
Ethnicity: Wolof (ref.: other) | 0.0085 | 0.039 | −0.054 | 0.073 | 0.052 | 0.062 | −0.011 | 0.065 |
Religion: Mouride (ref.: other) | 0.0022 | 0.041 | 0.037 | 0.074 | 0.080 | 0.062 | −0.018 | 0.059 |
Economic activity (ref.: unemployed) | ||||||||
Employed | 0.46*** | 0.05 | 0.38*** | 0.078 | 0.29*** | 0.080 | 0.35*** | 0.064 |
Inactive | 0.098+ | 0.053 | −0.015 | 0.078 | −0.034 | 0.095 | 0.26*** | 0.075 |
Occupation: self-employed (ref.: other) | −0.048+ | 0.027 | 0.036 | 0.064 | −0.097* | 0.043 | −0.012 | 0.029 |
Self-reported econ. status: good (ref.: bad) | −0.026 | 0.034 | −0.0036 | 0.060 | −0.49* | 0.20 | −0.11** | 0.042 |
Number of contacts at destination | −0.0074+ | 0.0038 | −0.014** | 0.0053 | 0.0045 | 0.0075 | 0.0055 | 0.010 |
Number of trips | 0.072*** | 0.017 | 0.12*** | 0.034 | −0.059 | 0.045 | 0.12** | 0.046 |
Does not speak language of destination | 0.081* | 0.035 | −0.26 | 0.22 | 0.010 | 0.054 | 0.088 | 0.065 |
Kids in Senegal (ref.: no) | 0.072*** | 0.02 | 0.047 | 0.030 | 0.15*** | 0.037 | 0.083* | 0.036 |
Spouse in Senegal (ref.: no) | 0.038+ | 0.021 | 0.040 | 0.036 | −0.015 | 0.031 | 0.063+ | 0.035 |
Geographic origin: from Dakar (ref.: other) | −0.037 | 0.038 | −0.034 | 0.066 | −0.053 | 0.064 | −0.041 | 0.057 |
Father's ed.: < secondary school (ref.: more) | −0.063+ | 0.037 | 0.026 | 0.065 | −0.058 | 0.059 | −0.16** | 0.052 |
Trip paid by family (ref.: no) | −0.0051 | 0.038 | 0.092 | 0.062 | −0.12 | 0.080 | −0.052 | 0.066 |
Plan to stay: definitive (ref.: no) | −0.099** | 0.033 | 0.060 | 0.053 | −0.061 | 0.053 | −0.13* | 0.057 |
Trip motivation: work/better life (ref.: other) | 0.14*** | 0.035 | 0.013 | 0.049 | 0.031 | 0.061 | 0.34** | 0.11 |
At least one parent alive in Sn. (ref.: no) | 0.12*** | 0.024 | 0.15*** | 0.036 | 0.26*** | 0.051 | −0.054 | 0.039 |
Log likelihood | −1938.61 | −907.774 | −483.250 | −425.263 | ||||
ρ (latent) | 0.9 | 0.896 | 0.946 | 0.944 | ||||
Pearson's r (manifest) | 0.71 | 0.707 | 0.783 | 0.782 | ||||
Observations (person-years) | 8119 | 3676 | 2089 | 2354 |