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Table 2 Multivariate results for random-intercept regression models of short returns

From: Irregular status, territorial confinement, and blocked transnationalism: legal constraints on circulation and remittances of Senegalese migrants in France, Italy, and Spain

Predictor I. Pooled II. France III. Spain IV. Italy
AME se AME se AME se AME se
Legal status (ref: fully regular: RP_WP)         
 Fully irregular (NRP_NWP) −0.22*** 0.016 −0.25*** 0.028 −0.21*** 0.023 −0.20*** 0.031
 Mixed (NRP_WP) −0.14*** 0.027 −0.20*** 0.038 0.11 0.14 −0.11* 0.042
 Mixed (RP_NWP) −0.077*** 0.023 −0.13*** 0.033 −0.038 0.048 0.013 0.049
Destination (ref: France)         
 Spain 0.0089 0.037 - - - - - -
 Italy −0.038 0.034 - - - - - -
Entry status: no visa (ref: visa) −0.01 0.02 0.039 0.034 −0.060+ 0.035 −0.096* 0.040
Years in destination 0.0099*** 0.0013 0.010*** 0.0019 0.014*** 0.0024 0.010*** 0.0024
Period of arrival: post-1990 (ref: pre-1990) 0.032 0.029 0.017 0.046 −0.030 0.054 0.011 0.071
Age at start of current migration spell −0.00029 0.002 0.000082 0.0032 −0.0011 0.0026 −0.00021 0.0046
Sex: Male (ref: female) 0.01 0.031 −0.035 0.051 −0.0081 0.046 0.051 0.063
Years of education 0.0058* 0.0025 0.012** 0.0042 0.00091 0.0035 0.0016 0.0060
Ethnicity: Wolof (ref.: other) 0.034 0.029 −0.018 0.052 0.12** 0.039 0.043 0.056
Religion: Mouride (ref.: other) 0.047 0.032 0.042 0.067 0.038 0.042 0.030 0.052
Economic activity (ref.: unemployed)         
 Employed 0.036 0.031 −0.065 0.058 0.18*** 0.042 0.053 0.053
 Inactive 0.0029 0.035 −0.084 0.062 0.14** 0.054 −0.069 0.065
Occupation: self-employed (ref.: other) −0.018 0.024 0.022 0.076 0.015 0.037 −0.045 0.036
Self-reported econ. status: good (ref.: bad) 0.041 0.035 −0.075 0.047 −0.088 0.099 0.11* 0.053
Number of contacts at destination 0.0011 0.004 −0.0054 0.0060 −0.011 0.0079 0.014 0.0094
Number of trips 0.009 0.012 0.022 0.017 −0.015 0.024 −0.019 0.032
Does not speak language of destination −0.022 0.029 0.057 0.12 −0.099** 0.036 0.0017 0.051
Kids in Senegal (ref.: no) −0.0018 0.019 −0.038 0.035 0.045 0.035 0.014 0.031
Spouse in Senegal (ref.: no) 0.15*** 0.026 0.082+ 0.047 0.073+ 0.040 0.22*** 0.041
Geographic origin: from Dakar (ref.: other) 0.021 0.028 −0.0096 0.049 −0.045 0.038 0.095+ 0.051
Father's ed.: < secondary school (ref.: more) −0.016 0.029 0.023 0.047 −0.0019 0.043 −0.034 0.056
Trip paid by family (ref.: no) −0.013 0.027 −0.027 0.045 −0.037 0.044 0.0082 0.055
Plan to stay: definitive (ref.: no) −0.01 0.025 0.011 0.046 −0.0018 0.036 −0.014 0.050
Trip motivation: work/better life (ref.: other) −0.0044 0.025 0.018 0.046 0.0041 0.037 −0.024 0.061
At least one parent alive in Sn. (ref.: no) −0.053* 0.022 −0.014 0.032 −0.058 0.038 −0.054 0.045
Log likelihood −3411.38 −1608.37 −883.35 −851.44
ρ (latent) 0.51 0.507 0.317 0.637
Pearson's r (manifest) 0.3 0.347 0.192 0.431
Observations (person-years) 8119 3676 2089 2354
  1. Source: MAFE-Senegal. Notes: + p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Average marginal effects (AMEs) calculated with individual-specific intercept assumed at mean of distribution of random intercepts. Pearson’s r evaluated at median linear predictor