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Table 1 Fixed effect models of the growth of all low-wage occupations (ISCO 5 + 9) and for service and shop (ISCO 5) and elementary (ISCO 9) occupations, respectively, in the EU 1995–2017. Coefficients and standard errors (within brackets) are reported. Significant at 10% (a), 5% (b) and 1% (c)

From: Refugee immigration and the growth of low-wage work in the EU15

  (1a) LWO (1b) Service (1c) Elementary (2a) LWO (2b) Service (2c) Elementary (3a) LWO (3b) Service (3c) Elementary (4a) LWO (4b) Service (4c) Elementary
REFMIG 1.286c (0.457) 0.470 (0.405) 0.816c (0.225) 1.345c (0.456) 0.538 (0.403) 0.808c (0.226) 12.858c (2.443) 10.305c (2.178) 2.553b (1.234) 4.313 (3.198) 1.030 (2.819) 3.283b (1.659)
EU25 # REFMIG    −0.946a (0.509) −1.077b (0.450) 0.132 (0.252)     16.658c (4.416) 16.996c (3.892) −0.338 (2.291)  
INV # REFMIG       −0.450c (0.095) −0.382c (0.085) −0.068 (0.048) −0.115 (0.126) − 0.017 (0.111) −0.098 (0.065)  
EU25 # INV # REFMIG           −0.679c (0.171) −0.695c (0.151) 0.016 (0.089)
INV # EU25           0.132 (0.085) 0.229c (0.075) −0.097b (0.044)
EU25 8.784c (1.883) 6.948c (1.671) 1.836b (0.928) 9.523c (1.917) 7.790c (1.695) 1.733a (0.950) 12.611c (1.847) 10.327c (1.646) 2.283b (0.933) 9.063c (2.767) 4.565a (2.439) 4.498c (1.435)
INV −0.228c (0.045) −0.227c (0.040) −0.001 (0.022) −0.223c (0.044) −0.221c (0.039) −0.002 (0.022) −0.057 (0.057) −0.082 (0.051) 0.025 (0.029) −0.097 (0.087) −0.208c (0.076) 0.111b (0.045)
Intercept 17.478c (1.850) 13.902c (3.332) 3.575a (1.850) 19.641c (3.917) 16.366c (3.462) 3.275a (1.940) 24.268c (2.670) 20.314c (2.380) 3.954c (1.349) 23.732c (3.865) 21.071c (3.407) 2.661 (2.005)
Institution Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Globalization Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Technology Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controllers Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
R2 0.341 0.693 0.341 0.628 0.699 0.341 0.645 0.707 0.345 0.672 0.735 0.361
N 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 363
  1. Institutional variables (EU25, collective bargaining, protection against dismissals and temporary work), globalization (import share, FDI share of GDP), technology (investments, labour productivity, human capital and technological change) and controllers (wage levels and distribution and size of the economy) all explain a considerable part of the variation. In fact, the degree of collective bargaining and the protection against temporary contracts all limit the growth of the low-wage sectors. Other significant factors, not reported in the table, moderating the growth of the low-wage sector are increasing labour productivity, high mean wages and the size of the economy. A high concentration of human capital is, however, positively associated with a growing low-wage sector as is a high Gini-coefficient. Both factors are shaping the growth of service jobs in particular. Neither import share, FDI nor technological change is significant when all variables are estimated jointly together with year-specific fixed effects. They are, however, significant if estimated theme by theme