Table 1 The nexus between EU external migration policies and democratization: policy narrative comparison (1995–2018)
Narratives | Problem’s driver | Problem’s nature | Problem’s solution |
|---|---|---|---|
Pre-‘Arab spring’ (~ 1995–2010) | |||
 Dominant narrative: lack-of-democracy-as-root-cause | lack of democracy, rule of law, good governance | irregular and forced migration flows | promoting and supporting democratization |
First years post-‘Arab spring’ (~ 2011–12) | |||
 Dominant narrative: lack-of-democracy-as-root-cause | lack of democracy, rule of law, good governance | irregular and forced migration flows | (short-term) promoting and supporting democratization |
Post-‘Arab spring’ and the ‘migration crisis’ (~ 2015–2018) | |||
 Dominant narrative: lack-of-democracy-as-root-cause | lack of democracy, rule of law, good governance + (intervening variable) instability and crisis | (massive and mixed) irregular and forced migration flows | (long-term) promoting and supporting democratization |
 Counter-narrative: democratization-as-push-factor | democratization and political change + (intervening variable) instability, insecurity and conflict | (refugee hump) irregular and forced migration flows | promoting stabilization, conflict resolution, resilience |